NOAA's aurora forecast maps a moving glow before the cameras arrive

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center publishes near-real-time maps of auroral location and intensity for both hemispheres. The forecast uses solar-wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field measured near the L1 point, then applies the OVATION model to estimate where aurora is likely and how strong it may be during the next 30 to 90 minutes. The maps also distinguish Earth's sunlit side and provide downloadable images and grid data.

Aurora can be visible from far beyond the brightest oval when conditions are strong, and cameras may record color or structure that is faint to the eye. A forecast match does not identify every glow, beam, or moving light; cloud cover, camera processing, local geometry, and other sources still need checking. It does give investigators an independent time-and-location layer for evaluating reports of diffuse or colored night-sky illumination.

Why it matters

Space weather can create unfamiliar large-scale light displays; a time-matched physical forecast is stronger context than guessing from color or a single photograph.

What the source establishes

NOAA describes the product as a 30-to-90-minute model forecast and publishes its inputs and limitations. It estimates auroral conditions rather than certifying the cause of an individual image.